![]() ![]() This winter, snow fans in the Carolinas will need to hope for those players to come together at the right time, as chances might be limited for the winter as a whole. As is the case in most winters, even "bad" ones, at least a couple of periods (one or two weeks each) usually happen when the overall weather pattern turns more favorable for wintry precipitation chances with the major weather players appearing on the field. But with these types of seasonal forecasts, you play the odds, and that that's the way I see the odds playing out at the moment. And with the average snowfall in Charlotte sitting at 5 inches, it only takes one good event to exceed that (see January 2000), and that is certainly possible. Again, that doesn't mean we won't have wintry precipitation chances. I will also go with the idea of below-average snowfall. But looking at the winter as a whole, I anticipate above-average temperatures. Tropical storms becoming more severe due to warmer ocean water temperatures. Droughts are becoming longer and more extreme around the world. ![]() That does not mean there won't be cold and below-average intervals. What are some of the signs of climate change Temperatures are rising world-wide due to greenhouse gases trapping more heat in the atmosphere. We are currently in a La Niña pattern (cooler-than-normal waters in the equatorial Pacific), and the La Niña conditions are expected to continue through the winter.įor the Carolinas, I favor the idea of above-average temperatures for the December-February period as a whole. When we can get some of these factors turned in a favorable direction, that can lead to much better chances in what may be an overall unfavorable seasonal setup for snow fans.Īnd I think that will be the story this winter. Again, forecasting that more than a few weeks in advance is difficult to impossible. Some phases of the MJO are favorable to winter weather chances around here while phases are not. One other major weather factor that drives our winter weather chances is the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. That is the topic of another blog, but oftentimes, forecasting those teleconnections more than a few weeks in advance is a fool's errand. On a broader scale, a lot of what gives us a perspective on whether a specific time period (normally a couple of weeks) is overall either conducive or not for winter weather threats are called teleconnections. Those details are something you can't even attempt to nail down until you see the whites of an event's eyes, much less on the scale of a season. Those details mean the difference between a big snow event and a marginal mixed bag of sloppy precipitation. With specific winter storms, the devil is always in the details. The winters of 00 are reference points for this winterĪround the Carolinas, seasonal snowfall forecasting is especially tricky, largely because a single snowstorm can make many cities reach or exceed their average yearly snowfall totals.We have been in a La Niña for many months now.A La Niña should hold through this winter. ![]()
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